Dr Biddle said the indigenous population was likely to become “more urban and older”. He warned that “it won’t come without costs, as certain determinants of indigenous wellbeing, like cultural participation, language usage and acquisition and maintenance of country, will be more difficult to maintain.”

THE number of Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders will soar to more than one million in the next 20 years, as the indigenous population rapidly ages and becomes more urbanised.

Report edited from the AUSTRALIAN PATRICIA KARVELAS Follow @PatKarvelas

A groundbreaking report,  released this month, predicts that the fastest indigenous population growth will be in Brisbane, Rockhampton, Cairns, southwestern Western Australia, South Headland, Townsville and Mackay.

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT HERE

The report forecasts that the indigenous population will grow from about 670,000 in 2011 to about 1.06 million by 2031, an increase of about 59 per cent, compared with an increase of about 20 per cent for the non-indigenous population.

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From making up about 3 per cent of the total population in 2011, indigenous people will comprise 3.9 per cent by 2031.

The paper, by the Australian National University’s Nicholas Biddle, finds that even excluding changes in whether people identify as indigenous, the regions in Queensland and Western Australia are projected to grow by at least 3 per cent a year.

Four regions — Apatula, Tennant Creek, Katherine and northwestern NSW — are projected to grow by less than 1 per cent per year over the period.

The indigenous population is projected to become much more urban over the next 20 years. In 2011, the indigenous population of Brisbane was estimated to be 65,000. This is slightly less than the roughly 69,000 indigenous people estimated to live in the whole of the Northern Territory.

By 2031, the Brisbane region is projected to have an indigenous population of a little more than 132,000 people, about 50 per cent more than the Northern Territory, with a little less than 89,000.

Although the total indigenous population is projected to grow by 59 per cent between 2011 and 2031, the population up until age 24 is only projected to grow by 47 per cent. This is still faster than the equivalent projection for the non-indigenous population in that age group, but is much slower than the indigenous population aged 65 and older, which is projected to grow by 200 per cent.

The 65-and-older cohort is forecast to comprise 6.4 per cent of the indigenous population in 2031, compared with about 3.4 per cent at the 2011 census.

This could have profound financial implications, as low rates of employment are likely to mean that indigenous retirees have far less in savings than their non-indigenous counterparts. It is also likely to have implications for health and disability policy.

Dr Biddle said there were two main reasons for the relatively rapid projected growth, including migration from non-urban to urban Australia, and high rates of intermarriage between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians. “As the children of these partnerships tend to be identified as indigenous, there is therefore an additional contribution to growth.”

He said that even in the regions with the slowest growth, the indigenous population was likely to grow faster than the non-indigenous population.

The report, funded by the federal government, warns that a rapidly growing indigenous population could put budget pressures on programs. “For programs that are funded on a fixed-dollar basis per person, a large growth in the eligible indigenous population could mean that the cost of the program would need to be either increased or spread across a greater number of people,” it says.

Dr Biddle said the indigenous population was likely to become “more urban and older”. He warned that “it won’t come without costs, as certain determinants of indigenous wellbeing, like cultural participation, language usage and acquisition and maintenance of country, will be more difficult to maintain.”

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